but how is it racist?Īgain, what's racist about that ad? You might find it objectionable because it rubs your political hair the wrong way, points a finger 100% at the Democrat Party and ignores Republicans' complicit role in allowing illegal immigration over the years. American University’s Sine Institute of Policy & Politics hosted an experienced and diverse group of Sine Institute Fellows for a virtual conversation August 18 looking ahead at the 2022 midterm elections. They’re projected to win the popular vote by 5 but lose the House by 8 districts. R+5 EVEN D+5 D+10 D+15 D+20 280 - 155 260 - 175 240 - 195 MAJORITY 240 - 195 260 - 175 280 - 155 300 - 135 320 - 115 Popular vote margin Party breakdown Democrats win both the popular vote and the House Democrats win both. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the president’s party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Turning to the current midterm cycle, the forecasting model (ran today) projects that Democrats will win 220 seats 14 more than they did in 2016 despite a 4 percentage point swing towards them in the popular vote. The only immigration that should be happening is LEGAL immigration.Īgain, what's racist about that ad? You might find it objectionable because it rubs your political hair the wrong way, points a finger 100% at the Democrat Party and ignores Republicans' complicit role in allowing illegal immigration over the years. The 2022 US midterm elections will be held on November 8. Democrats are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 5.6 points. All crime committed by illegal aliens is unnecessary damage to our society that needn't happen if they just didn't enter the country illegally in the first place. I don't care if the percentage is higher or lower than US citizens, more or less violent, etc. A high percentage of illegal aliens commit crimes that would never occur within our borders if they did not enter. (the murderer illegal alien Bracamontes re-entered the US multiple times after being deported, under both Repubs and Dems) But how is it racist? Illegal immigration is illegal (duh). It's also anti Democratic Party, maybe even unfairly so. The ad is anti illegal immigration, certainly. Strength of relationship: Strong: close to -1 or 1. Person's R correlation coefficient relationship. It is used when you have two continuous (interval or ratio) variables it is a symmetric measure, with values ranging from -1 to 1. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Because it shows an illegal alien who committed murders and then laughed and boasted about it in court? That's also factual, not racist. measure the strength of a linear association between two variables. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Because it shows 10,000 mostly Hondurans violently breaking through the Mexican border and continuing north with the intention to cross the US border too? That's factual, not racist. The major media outlets and a bunch of celebrities have declared it, but nobody's explained how. I'd like someone to explain what exactly was 'racist' about it.
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